Bloomberg reported on the 26th that the CHIP 4 Alliance, established by the United States to woo South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, China, held the first video conference of senior officials on February 16, the first formal meeting. The US sanctions against China have entered a new stage.
It was reported that the discussion focus of the meeting was mainly on how to maintain the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain, establish an early warning mechanism, and explore the possible cooperation directions of all parties in the future. The United States mentioned at the meeting that the participants of the CHIP 4 alliance play an important role in the supply chain. Among them, Taiwan, China and South Korea made in south korea are the main forces in the manufacturing industry. The United States has advantages in design and equipment, and Japan has advantages in materials. The semiconductor early warning mechanism will be included in materials, equipment, manufacturing and other aspects.
This foreign media report claimed that the meeting did not mention export control and relations with Chinese Mainland. This seems to be a meeting without new sanctions plan, but it is still a new mechanism for reallocating international semiconductor resources. It doesn’t seem to mention China at all, but it isolates China. In the short term, China’s supply chain security will be threatened. In the long term, it will be excluded from international technical standards and other fields. The CHIP4 alliance holds the core links of the global semiconductor industry. We must attach great importance to:
Analysis and impact
The establishment of the CHIP4 alliance is already a fact. First of all, we should have extreme thinking about the situation.
CHIP4 alliance is one of the means by which the United States holds the leading position in science and technology. From external sanctions, to the chip bill, to the CHIP 4 alliance, the United States has controlled the development of the integrated circuit industry and held the leading power of science and technology in its hands.
The United States will continue to strengthen its control over the integrated circuit industry. It is a way for the United States to show its strength by attracting allies. At the same time, the United States also has the strength to suppress its allies. South Korea, Japan and other countries also want to strive for greater benefits in the competition of integrated circuits through alliances, and sometimes have to yield to the United States. For example, now that South Korea is building new factories in the United States, it is impossible to rule out the possibility that South Korea will relocate or sell Chinese factories under heavy pressure.
At present, the CHIP4 video conference has not mentioned the strategy towards China, but it is also a test of China’s attitude. If China does not respond to the establishment of the CHIP 4 alliance, it is not ruled out that the United States will clearly define further restrictions on China’s integrated circuit industry in the alliance in the future.
It is foreseeable that the CHIP4 alliance will play a greater role in restricting China’s integrated circuit industry, and will strengthen the blockade in all aspects of the integrated circuit industry in the future to exclude China.
However, while preparing for the worst for CHIP4, we should also remain optimistic. CHIP4 has formed, but the sky cannot fall.
On the one hand, there are cracks in the CHIP4 alliance, and the interests of the United States, Japan and South Korea are unevenly distributed in the alliance. For example, the growth of the integrated circuit industry in South Korea, Japan and other countries depends on the Chinese market. If it is too obedient to the United States, it will give up in the Chinese market, and other markets can hardly make up for the loss of giving up this part of the market. Therefore, this makes it difficult for other interest groups to reach a complete agreement with the United States.
On the other hand, almost all of the tools used by the United States to impose sanctions on Chinese semiconductors have appeared, mainly focusing on the restriction of advanced technology and encouraging enterprises of CHIP4 members to withdraw or reduce investment in China. China has become accustomed to these routines and has begun to make response and preparation.
reflection
The CHIP4 alliance(what is the chip 4 alliance) has no targeted policies yet, but we should have extreme thinking and extreme preparation. The United States will not stop its crackdown on China. From the chip bill to the wheel-type crackdown and sanctions, to the CHIP4 alliance, and to the joint participation of Japan and the Netherlands in the equipment ban, the combination of the United States is increasingly intensive. We should have a clear understanding and make full ideological preparations.
At present, China’s industry has the most advantages in terms of market and economic volume. This is our basic plate and the biggest chip. Now the more the United States promotes the “small circle” of semiconductors and creates isolation and decoupling, the more we should open up and attract international enterprises. We should continue to strive for enterprises in South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan, China, and we should also strive for European enterprises that are still outside the alliance. In particular, we should serve the current foreign enterprises in China well and treat them equally in terms of policy. Give people kindness and get people with kindness.
In addition to the combination of the above policies, the United States has actively set up a model of de-Chinese at the terminal, and Dell is a typical case. This kind of active response from the international terminal manufacturers will bring a “demonstration effect”, and the enterprises that originally waited and waited may choose to follow. For typical enterprises that take the initiative to de-chinesize and de-couple, the Chinese industry should also clearly reward and punish them, and fight back through blacklist and other forms.
In short, as a late-developing economy, China’s semiconductor industry will move forward in a long period of ups and downs, and isolation and sanctions are the norm. We have to be rational and optimistic. We must fight for what we should fight for, and fight back what we should fight back. Don’t be a bull who is overwhelmed by anger, or an ostrich who buries his head in the sand. The most important thing is to do well in our own business, expand and strengthen the Chinese market, and make good use of international resources to solve industrial problems.